How climate change disrupts food security and the scientific race to meet sustainable development goals

The convergence of climate change and food security represents a defining challenge in the 21st century, deeply embedded in the scientific discourse on planetary boundaries, ecological resilience, and socio-economic equity. As anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions alter Earth’s climate systems, cascading impacts on agroecological zones, crop physiology, and hydrological cycles are becoming more apparent. These disruptions directly jeopardise Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG 2), which aims to end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.

Yet the issue extends beyond SDG 2. Food security underpins multiple global goals, from climate action (SDG 13) to gender equality (SDG 5), and from economic equality (SDG 10) to peace and justice (SDG 16). Understanding the scientific mechanisms linking climatic variability and agricultural vulnerability is essential for developing solutions that are not only technically sound but also socially inclusive and environmentally just.

Climate-induced biophysical stressors in agroecosystems

Recent advancements in earth system science, crop modelling, and remote sensing have provided critical insights into how climate anomalies affect agricultural productivity. Rising global mean temperatures—currently at approximately +1.1°C above pre-industrial levels—have led to observable declines in yields of key cereals. A meta-analysis published in Nature Climate Change (2017) identified the following average impacts per 1°C of warming:

Maize: −7.4% yield
Wheat: −6.0% yield
Rice: −3.2% yield
Soybeans: −3.1% yield

These reductions are attributed to thermal stress, disrupted phenological development, and increased evapotranspiration—all of which compromise reproductive growth phases, particularly during flowering and grain-filling periods. The C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways show different responses to heat, with C4 crops like maize particularly vulnerable under sustained high temperatures.

Further compounding the problem is the increase in extreme weather events. Empirical data from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) indicate a sharp rise in the frequency and intensity of:

Droughts (especially in semi-arid zones)
Flooding events (affecting low-lying deltaic regions)
Cyclones (increasingly erratic in the Pacific and Indian Oceans)
Unseasonal frosts (disrupting fruit and vegetable production)

These events degrade arable land, disrupt pollination cycles, damage irrigation infrastructure, and delay harvests. In addition, soil degradation through salinisation, erosion, and nutrient leaching continues to reduce long-term agricultural viability.

Globally, 33% of soils are moderately to highly degraded, according to the FAO’s State of the World's Soil Resources report. Desertification, intensified by erratic rainfall and overexploitation, now affects over 1.5 billion people, primarily in the Global South.

Hydro-climatic impacts on agricultural water security

Hydrology is central to understanding climate-induced food insecurity. Shifting precipitation patterns and increased variability in rainfall are altering the availability and timing of water resources. Irrigated agriculture, which produces 40% of the world’s food on just 20% of cropland, is highly dependent on predictable water supplies.

Scientific studies using climate models (CMIP6) predict up to a 25% decrease in renewable water resources in key breadbasket regions by 2050 under high emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). Glacial retreat in the Himalayas, the Andes, and the Alps is already impacting river-fed irrigation systems that support millions of smallholders.

The Groundwater Depletion Index, monitored by NASA’s GRACE satellite data, shows that major aquifers (e.g., Indo-Gangetic, Central Valley) are losing storage capacity faster than they are replenished. This is particularly concerning in areas where subsurface irrigation compensates for erratic rainfall.

Nutritional implications and socio-economic ramifications

The nutritional dimension of food security is deeply affected by climate-induced disruptions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations reduce the nutrient density of crops. For instance, wheat grown under high CO₂ conditions has lower concentrations of zinc, iron, and protein—micronutrients critical for child development and maternal health.

WHO statistics indicate that 45 million children under the age of five suffer from wasting, and climate-related shocks are a contributing factor. Moreover, market instability driven by crop failures and commodity speculation results in food price spikes. The 2007–08 global food crisis, partially driven by droughts in wheat-producing countries, pushed an additional 75 million people into hunger.

Women, particularly in rural and indigenous communities, often experience disproportionate burdens. Limited access to land, technology, and finance leaves them more vulnerable to climate-induced crop losses, yet they play a pivotal role in food production and seed conservation. Empowering women is not only a matter of gender equality but a proven strategy for building resilient food systems.

Science-based responses within the framework of SDG 2 and SDG 13

The integration of climate science, agricultural technology, and sustainability principles is at the forefront of emerging solutions. Notable approaches include:

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA): A tri-pillar framework promoting increased productivity, enhanced resilience, and reduced GHG emissions. Techniques include precision agriculture, conservation tillage, agroecological zoning, and biochar application.
Agroecology and regenerative farming: These rely on ecological interactions—such as polycultures, cover cropping, and soil microbiome management—to restore degraded landscapes while enhancing yield stability.
Genetic improvement and crop resilience: Advances in CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing have enabled the development of drought- and heat-tolerant crop varieties. For instance, drought-resistant maize hybrids released in sub-Saharan Africa under the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) initiative have improved yields by 20–30% under water stress.
Early warning systems and climate services: Satellites, AI-powered weather prediction tools, and mobile platforms are being used to disseminate climate forecasts to farmers, allowing them to make adaptive decisions.

Role of the global society and collaborative research networks

Addressing climate-related food insecurity requires transdisciplinary collaboration across the global society. Multilateral institutions, research consortia, and citizen science networks are vital in implementing solutions at scale. The Global Alliance for Climate-Smart Agriculture (GACSA), CGIAR, and One CGIAR bring together governments, NGOs, and universities to co-develop evidence-based interventions.

Additionally, platforms such as the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) and Future Earth provide integrated models that connect biophysical changes with human behaviour, institutional capacity, and policy dynamics. Their work reinforces that solutions must be context-specific, equity-oriented, and science-led.

Future pathways for a sustainable, just food system

The science is unequivocal climate change is a systemic threat to global food security. Yet it also presents a scientific opportunity: to rethink agriculture not merely as a productivity challenge but as a socio-ecological system embedded in a changing planet. Solutions must be rooted in systems thinking, driven by data, and guided by the principles of sustainability and justice.

Achieving food security in a warming world demands that we accelerate innovation, empower local actors, and align scientific research with global goals. The future of food lies not in technological fixes alone, but in a collaborative, inclusive, and deeply sustainable transformation of our relationship with the Earth.

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