Global plan to quadruple use of sustainable fuels by 2034

Global plan to quadruple use of sustainable fuels by 2034 | Photo: Christian Paul Stobbe

Brazil’s forthcoming Belém 4× pledge, a centrepiece of its COP30 agenda, could mark a decisive moment in the global energy transition. The leaked draft outlines plans to quadruple the worldwide use of “sustainable fuels”, from biofuels and biogas to hydrogen and synthetic e-fuels, by 2034 compared with 2024 levels. The proposal is designed not as a binding national target but as a rallying framework to push international collaboration on low-carbon energy sources.

Early discussions suggest that Japan, Italy and India are already signalling support, seeing the plan as a pragmatic step to decarbonise sectors where electrification remains technically challenging. Brazil, long a pioneer in sugar-cane ethanol, seeks to position itself as a global hub for bioenergy innovation, a move that could redefine both its economic and diplomatic influence in the decade ahead.

Promise and peril of a bio-fuel surge

The proposed global acceleration of sustainable fuels brings opportunities for industrial expansion and climate cooperation, yet also revives concerns about resource pressure and environmental oversight. Bio-fuels have long been viewed as one of the few realistic options for reducing emissions in aviation, shipping and heavy industry. A coordinated global effort could unlock billions in investment and generate new markets for cleaner combustion fuels.

However, the expansion carries pronounced risks. Environmental groups warn that growing demand for bio-fuel crops could exacerbate deforestation in tropical regions, displace food production, and increase pressure on water resources. Estimates indicate that by 2030, bio-fuel crops could occupy land equivalent to the size of France, while producing enough ethanol to power 100 kilometres could consume around 3,000 litres of water.

Moreover, when indirect land-use change is accounted for, some bio-fuels may emit more carbon overall than the fossil fuels they are intended to replace. Such outcomes would undermine the credibility of the “sustainable” label and risk accusations of greenwashing, especially if supply chains lack robust certification and transparency mechanisms.

Political stakes and historical roots

Brazil’s bio-energy credentials date back to the 1970s, when it launched one of the world’s earliest national ethanol programmes. Today, that legacy offers both a comparative advantage and a source of political leverage. Hosting COP30 in Belém gives the country a platform to promote a model that blends climate diplomacy with industrial strategy.

Yet scaling the model globally could test international governance. Expanding “molecular” energy systems, fuels made from renewable feedstocks, will require massive infrastructure development, new trade rules, and globally aligned sustainability standards. For developing economies this transformation could reshape land tenure, influence rural labour markets, and alter the social fabric of agricultural regions.

The debate over climate direction

Critics argue that the Belém 4× plan risks distracting from more direct fossil-fuel phase-out commitments. By promoting alternative fuels, they warn, policymakers may sidestep the harder task of cutting fossil production. Others counter that bio-fuels complement renewable power, providing the flexibility needed to decarbonise energy-intensive industries that batteries or grids cannot yet reach.

The core question is whether rapid growth in sustainable fuels can proceed without sacrificing ecological integrity. That balance aligns closely with one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) emphasising climate action and ecosystem protection.

Looking ahead

Brazil’s proposal encapsulates the complexity of twenty-first-century decarbonisation, a blend of technological optimism and environmental risk. If implemented with strict safeguards and transparent monitoring, the Belém 4× pledge could accelerate global progress toward cleaner energy systems. Without them, it may deepen existing conflicts over land, food, and biodiversity.

As the world turns its attention to COP30, the Belém plan offers a glimpse of the coming decade’s central challenge, reconciling economic ambition with ecological limits. Whether this initiative becomes a turning point in sustainable energy or a cautionary tale will depend less on Brazil’s vision than on the world’s collective commitment to making “sustainable fuels” genuinely sustainable.

Sources and note: The primary source of this report is The Guardian (October 16 2025). Additional context and data were drawn from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefings.